How Much Might a New Lake Oswego Library Cost? We Don't Know Yet.
- Derrith Schmidt
- 4 days ago
- 11 min read
There are currently no final plans, no final building size, no final site and, most importantly, no final cost for a new Lake Oswego library.
But we can make some reasonable comparisons to understand the potential magnitude of the investment. I asked three financial experts I know who live in LO and who I have volunteered with: what could a new library cost?
I'm starting this discussion because I believe that we need to know the cost implications and estimates and trade-offs before we can determine what we want and need for a library.
I don't want to relive another "shelf plan" where lots of people spend a lot of time and the City spends money on consultants and there is a grand vision and it's not funded. This happened with the 2002 George Rogers Master Plan. It could happen with the Foothills District development project. It happened in 2012 with a library vision and Bond that wasn't approved.
My position isn't “don't build a new library.”
It's instead: please don't spend years developing a grand vision before we know what it will cost, how we will pay for it, and whether the community is willing to make that investment.
So, what do financial experts in LO estimate the cost of a new library might be?
Estimate #1: $77 million in 2020 dollars. Perhaps as much as $100 million today.
A LO friend who is a recently retired financial and operations executive who spent his career managing major capital projects, including building and operating manufacturing plants, offered this back-of-the-envelope calculation:
"One way to evaluate the potential cost of a new library is to consider Multnomah County Measure 26-211, which passed in 2020. The bill funded $387 million for library capital improvements. This eventually increased to $458 million, which funded massive renovations and expansion for five libraries and improvements to 18 branches. Dividing the original $387 million by 5 indicates a cost of about $77 million per library. Is it accurate? No. Is it in the ballpark? Yes.
Keep in mind that the LO plan also includes a community center.
Further, at this stage it’s not clear whether the City will need to acquire land.
Should a candidate believe the cost will be substantially less, by all means ask them for their rationale and their number.
One final point, the $77 million is based on 2020 dollars.
A Gemini AI estimate, which seems reasonable, is that construction costs are up about 30 to 35% since 2020. Using the lower number, that takes the cost to $100 million."
Estimate #2: "$100 million is not unreasonable...give a range of dollars between $88 million to $100 million"
And make it more personal by what it would cost someone on their tax bill: "$225 per person per year for 25 years"
This estimate is from Jeff Gudman, a financial professional who ran for Oregon State Treasurer and was a LO City Councilor who I met volunteering with on the Southshore Fire station bond. He shared his estimate:
"I took the 2012 $35 million number and applied 5% compounding to 2028. The result was $76 million. At 6% compounding annually from 2012 is $88 million.
So, the potential $100 million is not unreasonable.
I googled construction costs an annual compound rate of increase since 2012 and the number was 4.5% to 5.5%. The number was lower in the first part of that time period and higher in the back half.
My personal bias is to give a range of cost estimates and how they came about rather than a specific number.
Putting some square footage on the existing library, the proposed library in 2012 and what is being considered now can provide some additional context for both sizes and dollars
Another way of looking at it is the following
Let’s say the cost is $100 million. Spread over 40,000 residents is equal to $2,500 per person. If you spread that over 25 years is $100 per year. When you add in the interest expense for a bond assurance over that same time it probably adds another $125, give or take per person.
So a ballpark number would be about $225 per person per year for 25 years
Again, the best way approaching this is on a range of dollars."
What about renovating our existing library?
The City has estimated that major improvements to the existing library—including seismic, ADA, water-intrusion, roof/building-envelope and other necessary work—would cost approximately $9.7–$10.5 million.
Estimate #3: Renovation would be more than $11 million
And there's an option of leasing a space for a small branch on the west side of town
This estimate and insight is from another financial expert I met volunteering with on the Southshore Fire Station Bond team.
"Regarding renovation, the $9.7-$10.5 number was from a 2024 city report. So you might want to include that year as a reference point somewhere. I'm sure costs have escalated since then. You mention $11 million for renovation, but it's probably a bit more than that now, for a fair financial comparison with building a new facility."
"The article doesn't mention the option of building or leasing space for a smaller branch library on the west side of town. I believe that option was the consultant's first recommendation in the 2023 Berry Dunn report. The city council has dismissed the branch option as costing too much to staff and maintain. In my opinion, the branch option should continue to be on the table since it could be scaled larger or smaller as funds permit."
To be clear: $100 million is NOT a City estimate. It is not a prediction of what a Lake Oswego library might cost. It is simply a rough estimate for comparison that helps illustrate the scale of the investment we could potentially be discussing.
And Lake Oswego's potential project isn't just a library. The City is also considering a community center, and we don't yet know whether land acquisition would be required.
What We Don't Know Yet
1. Are Lake Oswego residents actually on board with moving the library?
There appears to be considerable community interest in having a great library and community center. But that's not necessarily the same as supporting moving the existing library across town and building a new facility or creating another branch.
2. What are residents willing to pay?
The City's survey asked residents what they would like to see in a future library.
People understandably said they want lots of things: more space, more programs, community gathering areas and other amenities. But there is an important question I don't believe was asked: What are you willing to pay for those things?
A wish list is not a budget.
We Have Been Here Before
Lake Oswego voters have some relevant history with library bonds. The last time voters were asked to approve a general-obligation bond to help finance a new library was 2012.
The proposed bond was for up to $14 million toward a new approximately 60,000-square-foot downtown library at First Street and B Avenue.
The total cost estimate of a large library and associated parking back in 2012 was around $35 million. The Bond put to voters was $14million with the remainder proposed to come from sources including:
Up to $18 million in urban-renewal funds
About $2 million in library capital funds
Donations
Proceeds from selling the existing library property
Other resources
So the $14 million bond was not the entire cost of the proposed library.
And what happened? The bond failed, 58% to 42%.
Interestingly, on that same ballot, Lake Oswego voters approved a $5 million bond for Boones Ferry Road improvements, 51.5% to 48.5%.
Voters in 2012 weren't rejecting every City bond proposal. They rejected the library bond.
3. What Is the City's Financial Boundary?
We haven't seen a clearly established financial framework for the project.
What is a reasonable amount for Lake Oswego to spend on a new library?
And what would that mean for other City priorities?
4. Where Would the Money Come From?
There isn't currently money sitting in the City's General Fund to simply pay for a new library. A new facility could require some combination of funds from different sources.
A project of this magnitude isn't simply a decision about what City Council wants to build. It is a decision about what Lake Oswego taxpayers are willing to invest.
5. Who Is Evaluating the Financial and Construction Implications?
Library professionals have tremendous expertise in libraries, programming and serving the community. But designing, financing and constructing a major public building requires additional expertise:
Capital-project management
Construction estimating
Financial forecasting
Market research
Project financing
Long-term operating costs
Life-cycle maintenance
Those professionals need to be part of the process. It isn't fair (I think) to expect our Library professionals to manage our existing library while also managing a massive construction vision and build project.
Of note, the City has spent real money on consultants to poll people about the future of the library "wants" but not linking "wants" to "costs".
6. What Happens to Our Existing Library While All of This Is Being Figured Out?
The existing library needs upgrades, maintenance and improvements. Yet some decisions about investing in the current building appear to be affected by the possibility that the library may eventually move.
But think about the timeline.
The City needs to determine the library's vision and needs.
It needs to determine the scope and cost.
It needs to identify funding.
If a bond is necessary, the bond would need to be developed and placed before voters.
If voters approve it, the City would then need to design and construct the facility.
That is years away.
In the meantime, Lake Oswego residents still have a library that needs to function well today.
Shouldn't we continue investing appropriately in the existing facility while we determine whether a new building is truly the best long-term solution?
A construction expert who I've volunteered with had this perspective
"At some point, I'm sure the city will commission a survey to test the public's willingness to pay $ or $$ or $$$ on a new library, just as they did for the South Shore fire station."
He went on to share these questions and insights
"Three aspects I haven't heard much about are:
1. What % of LO residents actually use the physical library? My wife and I haven't gone inside for years, but we check out e-books and audio books all the time and print out "cultural passes" at home. These functions don't require much physical space.
2. What programs are proposed for the "community room" that can't be housed in existing facilities - we already have meeting rooms at city hall, ACC, all our schools, LORAC, Maintenance Facility, Oswego Heritage House, and many private facilities (churches, sr. centers, private schools).
3. The new waste water treatment plant will be mostly funded by rate increases - how much?? I think there's an informational meeting coming up, but I can't attend. This cost will impact all residents and could impact folks' willingness to pay for a library. Maybe the city should present the whole picture 1st - cost for library and cost for WWTP so we know what we're in for, rather than presenting it piecemeal. We'll vote on a library bond, but there's no vote (that I know of) for the WWTP cost."
What a great insight: think of all the expenses (tax and utility bills) and prioritize those for us as residents and taxpayers. We do this with our own home budgets to prioritize how to spend our money. We consider trade-offs. Do we want to go on a big trip or save to pay for a new roof?
Are We Getting the Cart Before the Horse?
The process should start with the community's needs—not with the assumption that the answer is a new building.
First: What library and community services do Lake Oswego residents need?
Then: How can we deliver those services most effectively and affordably?
Then: What facility—or combination of facilities—makes the most sense?
And finally: How much are Lake Oswego taxpayers willing to invest?
A new library may ultimately be the right answer. Or a branch that's leased or built. Or a library hub with small "branches" around town that can host story hours, be a place for neighbors to gather and where people can order and pick up books.
The City says the Future Library Task Force is being created to determine the community's needs and prioritize the building and site program before recommending a scope and location to Council. Excellent. That's exactly where we think the process should begin.
The City has already paid for market research
Specifically, three different pieces of research.
1. The 2023 Library Visioning Process
The City hired BerryDunn to conduct a library visioning/public-engagement process in 2022–23. The resulting report is:
The research included key-informant interviews, focus groups, a Social Pinpoint online survey, a Community Task Force, and other public input. The report is quite substantial and contains the actual findings—not just a summary.
2. The 2025 statistically significant Community Survey
This is a different survey. The City is now referring to the 2025 Community Survey in its Future Library Task Force materials. The City says that the 2023 visioning process and the 2025 statistically significant community survey both identified a need for flexible, accessible and multi-use spaces.
The City's survey asked residents what they would like to see in a future library, but not what they wanted to pay for.
3.The 2021 survey is another piece of the history
The City's 2022 RFP for the library engagement project says that in the 2021 Community Survey, residents who expressed an opinion ranked the following library priorities:
Library as a hub of community information/gathering
Events and services for children
Quality of the Lake Oswego Public Library facility
It also says 69% of residents surveyed who had an opinion were “very supportive” or “somewhat supportive” of expanding library amenities, services and facilities in the future. But again, that's 2021, not the 2023 visioning survey or 2025 survey. And none of the surveys linked "what you want" with "what will you pay for?"
We're back to this: What Are Residents Willing to Pay?
The surveys asked residents what they want—what services, amenities, spaces and facilities they would like to see. But they did not connect those choices to the question taxpayers ultimately have to answer: What are you willing to pay for it?
There is a big difference between saying, “Yes, I would like a larger library, more meeting rooms, a community center, children's spaces, performance space and other amenities,” and saying, “Yes, I want those things enough to pay $X million for them.”
The City's 2023 survey asked residents to rank possible approaches to improving library services, including remodeling the existing library, mobile services, expanding to the west side through a new building or leased storefront, increasing digital resources and expanding hours. The 2025 City survey asked residents how much they thought various community-center amenities were needed.
Those are useful questions. But they are not the same as asking residents to make choices within a financial constraint. For example: Would you support a new library/community center costing $40 million? $60 million? $80 million? $100 million?
And if the answer is no, what would you eliminate or reduce to bring the cost down?
That's how taxpayers actually make decisions about major public investments.
It is easy to say, “I want it.”
It is much more meaningful to ask, “I want it—and I am willing to pay $___ for it.”
Until the City connects what residents want with what they are willing to pay, we don't really know what the community supports.
Please Let's Not Build the Dream House Before Establishing the Budget
Who creates a wish list for their dream house, hires an architect and starts getting construction bids without first asking:
What is our budget?
What can we afford?
What do we really need?
We shouldn't do that with a library.
Lake Oswego has experienced what happens when we spend years developing a vision without a clear funding plan.
The 2002 George Rogers Park Master Plan is one example. After years of planning, consultant work and community input, there was no funding plan—and the plan was ultimately shelved.
As a former boss of mine used to have posted at eye level behind her desk:
“Failure is making a mistake and not learning from it.”
Let's learn from our past.
Before we spend years planning, fundraising and potentially asking voters to approve a very large bond, let's establish the needs, understand the alternatives, know the numbers, and ask people what they're willing to pay for and trade-offs they want to make.
A great library isn't defined by how much we spend on the building.
It's defined by how well it serves our community.
Have a perspective or information to help further this discussion? Send me a note here
I'll keep updating this blog post to ensure it's accurate.
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